September 10 Movement: "For the State, the spectrum of threats is broad"

While internal security expert Eric Delbecque does not foresee a convergence of all struggles, he does expect actions that are potentially more violent than those of the yellow vest movement.

Author of the book "Les Ingouvernables" (Grasset), Éric Delbecque was also the security director of "Charlie Hebdo" after the 2015 attack (1).

While the Minister of the Interior says he doesn't believe in a "large-scale protest," he fears spectacular actions. Faced with this phantom and protean threat, how can the State anticipate possible excesses?

Given the number of more or less vindictive actions expected, the spectrum of threats is extremely broad indeed. By scrutinizing rally maps as much as Telegram chat loops, security and intelligence services have a little idea of ​​what to expect, but it is above all the ability of law enforcement to be mobile that will be called upon. It is very complicated to prepare for this when two quite distinct audiences seem to be mobilized: on the one hand, people who want to display their discontent in a relatively peaceful manner, and on the other, individuals potentially linked to the ultra-left, who are unruly, even violent.

The line is sometimes thin. During the Yellow Vest movement, perhaps through training, ordinary people became radicalized...

Especially as the "sovereign citizens" movement gains momentum. Their pseudo-doctrinal discourse adds to the already known radicalism, and this kind of opportunity can convince exasperated people - and therefore prone to anger - to turn to violent action.

“Exasperated people who can turn to violent action”

Is it conceivable that ultra-left activists will end up fraternizing with their enemy brothers from the ultra-right on the barricades?

I don't think so. This convergence of struggles and extremes is a bit of a pipe dream. Beyond ideas, these different nebulae each defend their own interests, their own existence, including in the media. The ultra-left benefits in this regard from greater experience in organizing shock operations, in its ability to mobilize as well, even though the ultra-right has become more structured in recent years. On the other hand, it is in the shadow of individual psyches that a conjunction of contradictory themes can appear.

Challenged during the Yellow Vest protests, has the French doctrine of maintaining order evolved?

Yes, the mobile gendarmes and the CRS have learned from what went wrong at the time, particularly the use of dedicated weapons. Despite increasingly violent opposition to them, maintaining and restoring order is now better controlled.

Upstream, the role of Territorial Intelligence remains essential for the government. But how can we imagine these agents being able to effectively handle each of the thousands of actions announced for September 10?

Let's just say they identify trends in the targeted locations, without claiming to be exhaustive. Nor are they capable of doing so, since fortunately we are not in a totalitarian country. But it's also about distinguishing between people who are active on social media and those who will actually be active on the ground.

(1) This year he signed “The Irresponsible – Ten years after Charlie Hebdo” (Plon, €20) .